Strong Technical Trend in Stock Likely to Continue

The weekend just got away from me once again so I apologize for my tardiness in publishing this week’s letter. Instead of writing another diatribe on why I think the economy remains strong I thought it might be more instructive to share a link to a video about how strong the technical trend in stocks are.

The video is from Chris Ciovacco on You Tube. He is completely unbiased and always focuses on the probabilities of what could happen. He keeps it very simple but the message in this week’s video is particularly poingiant. This is one of my resources that help me keep a pulse on the probably direction of the trend in stocks. Enjoy!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbUQMbv9Xa8&t=2s

Respectfully,

Mark Bern, CFA

Comments

This Economy IS Stronger Than Many Realize

By Mark Bern, CFA I make this statement based upon a multitude of indicators but I want to focus on one that is irrefutable. The trucking industry is running at full capacity and adding capacity at a record clip! Once service I read is ACT Research, a research company that specializes on the trucking industry. The company reports on the demand and build trends for trucking equipment. The most recent few reports (excerpted below) show incredible strength. “After a steady June, fleets came roaring back into the market in July. OEMs had their strongest July net order volume in history, breaking a record that was set in 1994. Net orders were 102% better than last July and 45% above June volume. Considering July is, historically, the industry’s weakest order month, this performance is truly exceptional. Year-to-date, net orders of just over 200k trailers are up 30% from 2017,” said Frank Maly, ACT’s Director of CV Transportation Analysis and Research. He a...

Why I Still Like Certain Stocks

By Mark Bern, CFA The latest Durable Goods Orders report from the Commerce Department shows a spike of 4.5% in August, but that was primarily driven by an increase in orders for aircraft. When transportation is stripped out orders improved only 0.1%. Of course, trucks are also putting in a strong showing but autos are actually in decline. The takeaway is that Boeing (BA) remains a strong hold in our model portfolio (rated as a buy for new investors) as orders for new aircraft and the backlog of orders continue to pile up making the next several years look like we should see record sales and profits. The only thing that could dent the current trend would be for China to cancel orders. But that is unlikely because the main competitor, Airbus (AIR.PA) is behind in fulfilling orders and cannot keep up because of delays by it engine suppliers. It has fewer orders and is producing fewer airplanes and yet is falling behind on its production commit...

Hurricane Florence Impact on U.S. Economy

By Mark Bern, CFA Early Estimates Five days ago estimates of damage from the hurricane were as high as $170 billion. Now I am reading estimates that are more in the range of $20 billion in storm related damage. That figure could go up or down depending on how much rain the storm drops in any given area. There has already been considerable flooding in North Carolina and more is expected there and in the western areas of Virginia as the storm moves inland. Much of the damage will be to residential properties and autos. To put the $20 billion estimate in damage into perspective we need to compare it to the damage done by other major storms. See the table below: Source: Business Insider So, unless the damage is much worse than the more recent expectations it should create a significant drag on the economy. In the ensuing months (and sometimes years) storms may tend to increase economic activity in certain industries such...

Bern Factor. Weekly Letters

Search This Blog