Bern Factor. Weekly Letters

by Mark Bern, CFA There are obviously several areas of growth ahead but three stand out in my mind: semiconductor chips and CPUs, cameras and sensors.   In the area of chips and CPUs alone there are also multiple growth areas such as autonomous vehicles, drones, AI (artificial intelligence), AR (augmented reality), cloud computing, and gaming.   There are other areas, of course, but those are where I expect the most potential growth.   The demand for both cameras and sensors is about to explode, in my humble opinion. In 2017, only about 8% of all new smartphones had dual cameras.   That number is projected to increase to 21% in 2018 and to 53% by 2020.   On top of that, camera makers are projecting that as many as eight cameras could be included in future high-end smartphones.   Two cameras will be required for AR functions alone, another for facial recognition and another for iris sensing, and as many as four for improved photo quality (two in fron...

by Mark Bern, CFA We have all heard the many buzz words about the future technologies coming: VR (virtual reality), AR (augmented reality), AI (artificial intelligence) IoT (Internet of things), 3D sensing, drones, autonomous diving cars, and 5G (5 th generation broadband – a form of networked Wi-Fi, or a form of wireless communication).   I will try to explain some of these terms and why we, as investors, need to pay attention to the respective evolution of each in this and the next few weekly letters. VR vs AR It is easy to confuse the two terms as both are ways that tech can change the way you look at the world around you.   VR immerses you in an imaginary or simulated environment, like a computer game.   You can see everything around you in the game and react with other players.   It may seem real or it may be animated, it all depends on the developers of the application.   It may be created by millions of photos of actual places to make you feel...

by Mark Bern, CFA This week I want to attempt to explain what I expect to come, primarily in the relatively short term (6-12 months), from the tariffs implemented this past Friday by the U.S. and China.   Next week I intend to begin a series on how changes in technology will affect much of our lives and lead to disruptions in many industries.   So stayed tuned as it should be more fun to take a look into what the future could bring. Initial Impact The initial impact will probably take a few weeks before we, as consumers, begin to feel much difference.   Retailers will attempt to hold the line on prices as much as possible using some of the new found cash flow and profitability from tax reform to offset the costs of tariffs rather than pass it all on to consumers.   Ours is still a very competitive market, especially in retail, where Amazon is encroaching on the brick and mortar retailers with its purchase of Whole Foods giving it a physical presence in much ...